Genomic Testing Heifers: When It Pays and When It Doesn't for Commercial Holstein Operations

The question is "what will I do differently?"

A genomic test costs money whether or not it changes a decision. That is the simplest way to think about when it pays. If a heifer's result will not alter whether you keep her, how you breed her or who she is mated to, then the test is an expense with a nice report attached. If it will change those choices, the value can be real. This article is deliberately about the money side. For how to read the numbers themselves, start with our guide to genomic testing and Net Merit.

What the economics literature says

Albert De Vries, a University of Florida dairy economist, has run the numbers more than most. In a 2017 Dairy Herd Management article titled "Does Genomic Testing Pay?" he assumed a test cost of about $50 per head and worked through what the test adds depending on what a herd already knows about its heifers. His main findings for a 100-cow herd were:

• With no genetic information, or only the sire's identity, testing was estimated to add roughly $1,500 to $5,000 per year in net returns.
• When extensive parent information already exists, parent data gave slightly better returns than testing the animals.
• About 15 percent of calves nationally are misidentified, and testing could cut that to roughly 3 percent, which is a benefit you only see if you use the result to correct parentage.
• Each 1 percent reduction in inbreeding was valued at $25 or more in lifetime performance.

He also offered a useful comparison: using bulls with $50 higher Net Merit was roughly equal to testing heifers with no parent information, and with sire identification a $20 higher Net Merit was equal to the benefit of testing. His conclusion was careful: testing "can make you money, maybe."

A 2018 presentation by De Vries (slides here) adds the key condition. Under its stated assumptions, which included a $340 genetic standard deviation, 70 percent genomic reliability versus 10 percent for parent average, and a $45 test cost, testing paid if there was more than a 15 percent surplus of dairy heifer calves. In other words, the test earns its keep mainly by letting you cull or sell the bottom of a heifer group you have more of than you need. It was more valuable for culling than for selective mating, and its value fell when high prices for beef-cross calves led herds to use beef semen on lower-merit dams, because that reduces how many dairy heifers you have to choose among.

When testing is most likely to pay

1. You have more heifers than you need. Sexed semen on the best cows creates a surplus. Genomic ranking then tells you which to keep and which to sell or cross to beef. Without a surplus, you are keeping nearly every heifer anyway.
2. Your pedigree data is thin. If sire information is missing or unreliable, or dam records are patchy, genomic data fills a real gap and fixes mistakes.
3. You sell breeding stock. A genomic number backed by a test makes a heifer easier to value and market.
4. You want to manage inbreeding and recessives. Genotypes expose carrier status and relationships that pedigrees miss. See our article on haplotypes and recessive traits.
5. You plan to use the results in beef-on-dairy decisions. If you will assign beef semen to the bottom group of cows and keep dairy semen for the top, ranking heifers sensibly feeds directly into that. See our guide to sexed semen and beef-on-dairy breeding systems.

When it probably does not pay

• You keep every heifer regardless. If you are short of replacements, ranking has little to act on.
• Parent average is already solid and you will not cull on it. De Vries found parent data alone sometimes did slightly better than testing when it was extensive.
• The result never gets used. A report that sits in a folder returns nothing. If nobody on the farm will make decisions from the ranking, skip the spend.
• Beef-cross calf prices dominate your plan. When you are using beef semen on most of the herd, the number of dairy heifers to choose among is small, and the testing value drops accordingly.

What the industry says, and how to read it

Genomics has clearly sped up genetic progress at the national level. An article in Progressive Dairy by a genomics company representative reports that Holstein bull Net Merit gains were roughly $5 to $38 per year before genomics and $66 to $88 per year afterward. That is a useful picture of the technology's potential, but note the source sells genomic services, and national bull gains are not the same as the return on testing a particular herd's heifers. The same article's examples of large differences between half-sibling heifers whose parent averages were nearly identical illustrate the real value of genomics: it can separate animals that pedigrees cannot. You can read the article on AgProud.

A simple decision framework

1. Count your surplus. How many heifers will you raise beyond replacement needs? If it is near zero, stop.
2. Price the decision. What does it cost to raise a heifer to calving, and what would you sell or cull her for? The gap is the downside you avoid by ranking early. Our guide to raising Holstein heifers covers cost.
3. Check your current data. If parentage is uncertain, add identity checking to the value of the test.
4. Decide the action in advance. Write down which animals get sold, which get beef semen and which get sexed semen at each ranking cut.
5. Test a subset first. Run one calf crop, track what you changed, and compare.

Bottom line

Genomic testing pays when it changes decisions about a heifer surplus, when it fixes weak pedigree data, and when the herd has a plan for the information. It pays less when you keep every heifer or when parent information is already strong. Run your own numbers before committing to a test on every calf. For wider farm business resources, visit the Agriculture Directory and farm.fm's agribusiness page. This site is independent and not affiliated with any breed association or testing company.